A Modest Review of the Question: What Was Ralph Nader’s Possible Impact on the Outcome of the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table of Contents
1. Votes cast for Nader in Florida and New Hampshire 2. Bush’s Margin of Victory in Florida and New Hampshire 3. Significance of Florida and New Hampshire 4. Hypothetical Scenarios in Nader’s Absence from the Election 5. How the Two Main Political Parties Viewed Nader 1. Florida Ballot Controversy 2. U.S. Supreme Court Decision: Bush v. Gore Did Nader’s Candidacy Cause Gore to Lose the 2000 Election? Appendices Appendix A: Pros and Cons: Did Nader Cost Gore the Election? Appendix B: Comparison of Candidate Positions on Key Issues Appendix C: Breakdown of Voters by Demographic
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Appendix B |
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Comparison of Candidate Positions on Key Issues |
Issue | Bush | Gore | Nader |
1. AbortionShould abortion be legal? | Con | Pro | Pro |
2. Affirmative Action:Should affirmative action be used in employment and education? | Con | Pro | Pro |
3. Cuba Embargo:Should the U.S. maintain its embargo on Cuba? | Pro | Pro | Con |
4. Death Penalty:Should the death penalty be allowed? | Pro | Pro | Con |
5. Education:Should federal funding be linked to standardized test results? | Pro | Pro | Con |
6. Health Care:Should the U.S. adopt a single-payer health care system? | Con | Con | Pro |
7. Environment:Should the U.S. allow drilling for oil in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge(ANWR)? | Pro | Con | Con |
8. Environment:Should the U.S. sign the Kyoto Protocol (an international agreement to reduce emissions)? | Con | Pro | Pro |
9. Gay Marriage:Should gay marriage be legal? | Con | Con | Pro |
10. Medical Marijuana:Should marijuana be a medical option? | Con | Con | Pro |
11. Military:Should the U.S. military budget be increased? | Pro | Pro | Con |
12. Social Security:Should Social Security be privatized? | Pro | Con | Con |
13. NAFTA:Is the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) good for the U.S.? | Pro | Pro | Con |
14. Taxes:Should the estate tax be eliminated completely? | Pro | Con | Con |
2000 Presidential Election | Group* | Gore | Bush | Nader |
All Voters | Pct. | 48% | 48% | 3% |
RACE | ||||
White | 81 | 42 | 55 | 3 |
African-American | 10 | 90 | 9 | 1 |
Hispanic | 7 | 62 | 35 | 2 |
Asian | 2 | 55 | 41 | 3 |
AGE | ||||
18-24 | 9 | 47 | 47 | 5 |
25-29 | 8 | 49 | 46 | 4 |
30-49 | 45 | 48 | 50 | 2 |
50-64 | 24 | 50 | 48 | 2 |
65 & over | 14 | 51 | 47 | 2 |
INCOME | ||||
less than $15,000 | 7 | 58 | 38 | 4 |
$15,000-29,999 | 16 | 54 | 42 | 3 |
$30-49,999 | 24 | 49 | 48 | 2 |
$50-74,999 | 25 | 46 | 51 | 2 |
$75-99,999 | 13 | 46 | 52 | 2 |
$100,000 & over | 15 | 43 | 55 | 3 |
PARTY | ||||
Democrat | 39 | 87 | 11 | 2 |
Republican | 35 | 8 | 91 | 1 |
Independent | 26 | 46 | 48 | 6 |
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY | ||||
Liberal | 20 | 81 | 13 | 6 |
Moderate | 50 | 53 | 45 | 2 |
Conservative | 29 | 17 | 82 | 1 |
This chart shows how different groups voted in the Nov. 7, 2000 U.S. Presidential election. The breakdown offers insight into how Gore performed vs. Bush with certain groups, and also shows where Nader was able to pick up more support. Key points include:” 1. Among people who identified as “liberal,” 6% voted Nader and 13% Bush2. Among registered Democrats, 2% reported voting Nader and 11% Bush 3. Bush only lost 8% of registered Republicans to Gore and 1% to Nader 4. Bush was able to win 48% of registered Independents, 2% more than Gore 5. Nader’s highest support came from liberals, Independents, and people age 18-24 Source: Survey by Voter News Service of 13,225 voters as they left voting booths on Election Day, November 7, 2000. By: Tracey DeFrancesco Date: Mar. 17, 2014Commissioned by the A-Mark Foundation Return to Table of Contents1. Federal Election Commission, “2000 Official Presidential General Election Results,” fec.gov, last updated Dec. 2001 2. Ibid. 3. Ibid. 4. Neal Allen and Brian J. Brox, “The Roots of Third Party Voting: The 2000 Nader Campaign in Historical Perspective,” Party Politics, Sep. 2005 5. Gerald M. Pomper, PhD, “The 2000 Presidential Election: Why Gore Lost,” Political Science Quarterly, 2001 6. Michael C. Herron, PhD, and Jeffrey B. Lewis, PhD, “Did Ralph Nader Spoil a Gore Presidency? A Ballot-Level Study of Green and Reform Party Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election,” Apr. 24, 2006 7. Peter Haskell Burr, “Live Free and Vote: What Fifty Years of the New Hampshire Primary Can Teach a Candidate,” Historical New Hampshire, Spring/Summer 2003 8. Tony Schinella, “DEBUNKING THE MYTH: Ralph Nader didn’t cost Al Gore the presidency in 2000,” Feb. 25, 2004 9. Alexander Lane, “Nader Almost Said Gore=Bush, But Not Quite,” politifact.com, June 30, 2008 10. Frank Pellegrini, “To Gore, He’s Darth Nader — and Dangerous,” TIME, Oct. 23, 2000 11. Laura Meckler, “GOP Group To Air Pro-Nader TV Ads,” Washington Post, Oct. 27, 2000 12. Frank Pellegrini, “To Gore, He’s Darth Nader — and Dangerous,” TIME, Oct. 23, 2000 13. Associated Press, “Gore Faces Challenges from the Left,” USA Today, May 26, 2000 14. Laura Meckler, “GOP Group To Air Pro-Nader TV Ads,” Washington Post, Oct. 27, 2000 15. Michael Cooper and Richard Perez-Pena, “Republican Ads Use Nader’s Comments in Bid to Hurt Gore,” New York Times, Oct. 28, 2000 16. David Ruppe and Peter Dizikes, “Nader Continues Gore Attacks,” ABC News, Oct. 26, 2000 17. Stephanie Desmon, “Palm Beach County, Fla., Defies Pigeonholing,” Baltimore Sun, Nov. 14, 2000 18. Karla Schuster, Linda Kleindienst and Mark Hollis, “Court Allows Recount,” Florida Sun-Sentinel, Nov. 17, 2000 19. “VOTE: The Machinery of Democracy,” Smithsonian National Museum of American History, 2004 20. Mark Schilling, “The 2000 Presidential Election A Statistical Postmortem,” Math Horizons, Apr. 2001 21. Don Van Notta, Jr. and Dana Canedy, “Florida Democrats Say Ballot’s Design Hurt Gore,” New York Times, Nov. 9, 2000 22. “Official Results,” Florida Department of State Election Results, doe.dos.state.fl.us, (accessed Jan. 15, 2014) 23. “Katherine Harris’ ‘W’ Files,” CBS.com, Aug. 8, 2001 24. Alex McBride, “Bush v. Gore (2000),” pbs.org, Dec. 2006 25. The eight media companies that commissioned the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago to conduct the study were the Associated Press, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CNN, St. Petersburg Times, Palm Beach Post, Washington Post and the Tribune Co., which ran the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Orlando Sentinel and Baltimore Sun, among other newspapers. 26. Associated Press, “Recount of Fla. Ballot Favors Bush,” michigandaily.com, Nov. 12, 2001 27. FactCheck, “The Florida Recount of 2000,” factcheck.org, Jan. 22, 2008 28. Gerald M. Pomper, PhD, “The 2000 Presidential Election: Why Gore Lost,” Political Science Quarterly, 2001 29. Neal Allen and Brian J. Brox, “The Roots of Third Party Voting: The 2000 Nader Campaign in Historical Perspective,” Party Politics, Sep. 2005 30. Michael C. Herron, PhD, and Jeffrey B. Lewis, PhD, “Did Ralph Nader Spoil a Gore Presidency? A Ballot-Level Study of Green and Reform Party Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election,” Apr. 24, 2006 31. Federal Election Commission, “2000 Official Presidential General Election Results,” fec.gov, last updated Dec. 2001 32. Jonathan N. Wand, Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Michael C. Herron, and Henry E. Brady, “The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida,” American Political Science Review, Dec. 2001 Appendix A Sources i David E. Rosenbaum, “Relax, Nader Tells Democrats, but the Math Says Otherwise,” New York Times, Feb. 24, 2004 ii Gary Langer, “Spoilage?,” ABC News, Feb. 25, 2008 iii “Did Ralph Nader Spoil a Gore Presidency? A Ballot-Level Study of Green and Reform Party Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election,” Michael C. Herron and Jeffrey B. Lewis, Apr. 24, 2006 iv Martin Dyckman, “Undermining Liberals: First Nader, Now Unger,” floridavoices.com, June 25, 2012 v Matthew Jones, “Myths About Voter Turnout,” videojug.com, May 22, 2008 vi Ibid. vii Tony Schinella, “DEBUNKING THE MYTH: Ralph Nader Didn’t Cost Al Gore the Presidency in 2000,” Feb. 25, 2004 viii Ibid. ix “Law Professors for Rule of Law,” New York Times, Jan. 13, 2001 (554 professors had signed at the time of print but the total rose to 673 in an online petition) x Gary Langer, “Spoilage?,” ABC News, Feb. 25, 2008 |